John Forman – Following the Quest of Value
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Know the Rejection and Attraction Areas,
Make Great Trades
Discover How to Use Price Distribution to Identify the Best Trades and Avoid Poor Ones
Having a clear understanding of the levels the market is drawn to and/or rejected from provides a huge trading advantage. I’ll share with you the market analysis and trading techniques that are the basis of strategies Wall Street institutions pay thousands per month to receive!
Dr. John Forman holds a PhD in Behavioral Finance with a specific focus on the performance of individual (retail) traders in the financial markets. John has over 30 years experience in the markets, both personally and professionally. He was a market analyst at Thomson Reuters for many years (going back pre-merger), covering basically the full spectrum of markets. John is the author of The Essentials of Trading and Trading FAQs.. He’s also authored literally dozens of articles for trading related publications and has been featured on TV and radio interviews.
Here’s a recent example of my analysis and trading strategy for the S&P 500 futures, straight from the service on which I write each day.
Thomson Squawk Box:
For today we’re going to start with a bracket of 1347 to 1370. The former is yesterday’s point of control. The latter is a combination of the high end of last Thursday’s value area and the bottom of last Wednesday’s. As such, that’s a very important level. That being the case, we’ll be sellers against it, with a stop at 1376.
To start the day, at least, we’ll look to buy an approach of the 1347 low end of the bracket with a stop at 1342.
Notice how the market went right up to the 1370 level straight after the opening bell and immediately turned around. It then dropped right down to 1347 about two hours later (30 minute bars), then bounced from there.
Traders would have made money on both those calls!
Later in the day, after the 1347 finally did give way, I indicated that 1330 was the next major bottoming area. As you can see, that indeed came to pass, not just once, but three times.
How many points was that analysis worth? It depends on how you specifically chose to trade it, but certainly at least 20 and potentially upwards of 40 or 50. If you’re an S&P futures trader you know that’s a profit of at least 20%, and possibly 50%, on your initial margin requirement – in just 1 day!
Granted, you don’t see 40+ point ranges in the S&P every day. But what if you could grab even just 5 points per day? That’s like 10% on your margin. A great many traders have done extremely well for themselves doing just that sort of thing.
Works for any market, any time frame.
Not a stock market trader? Or maybe you don’t trade short-term. Not to worry. I cover a lot of markets in my own trading and I can tell you that this methodology I’m going to show you…
Here’s an example of a forex trade I did for myself using the very same approach.
In fact, this trade was on during my vacation. I put it on before I left and when I came back I’d booked more than 500 pips!
Based on how the markets really work.
Most traders never stop to think about what’s happening at the most basic level when prices move and trades are made. That means they don’t really understand what true support and resistance is all about.
The charting method to which I’m referring is sometimes called Market Profile®. I’ve also seen it referred to as TPO Charting, Volume at Price, and some other names. For simplicity’s sake, I just call it price distribution analysis. Unfortunately, not many people have been exposed to it.
At its core, this price distribution technique is a charting method which, as the name implies, focuses on price (and volume for markets where that information is available). It uses no indicators. It’s not a trading system. Please be aware of that.
Price is how the market attempts to optimize transaction flow and charts are generally the most efficient way to present the movement of price over time. Through the charts we can see how the markets are moving price to serve their needs, and of course by extension the needs of traders and investors like ourselves.
And through those charts we can see where the market is likely to go next.
Get the biggest profits out of each trade!
When you know where the market is likely to go – where the major support and resistance levels are – it makes trading so much easier. You can manage your trades better, squeeze the most profit out of each position. This is one of the simplest ways to benefit from learning the techniques I will share.
I began using this methodology almost 15 years ago when I first started as a market analyst and I love it more and more each day!
What I’m going to show you is what I use every day to identify the important price levels – the ones that the market will invariably be drawn to. And each day I watch them get hit. It’s so amazing to see it happen time after time after time. My co-workers would tell you that I often shake my head at how well this stuff works!
Spot the turning points!
Ever wanted to buy the low and sell the high?
Of course you have! We all have!
But how often have you been able to say you did? Using this technique it happens to me more frequently than you’d think possible.
Here’s another recent example:
Thomson Squawk Box: Squawk Trader
Our strategy to start the day is to fade the edges of the bracket in expectation of a relatively narrow day. That means selling the approach of 1356 with a stop at 1364. It also means buying on the approach of 1335, with a stop at 1330.
Want to guess what happened?
That’s right! Readers would have sold at the top and bough at the bottom. Actually, they could have sold at the top twice!
Pick out great trades!
As traders we’re always on the look out for those great trade opportunities – the ones where the rewards far outweigh the risks. That’s the whole point of the methodology I use and which I’m going to share with you.
It’s all about asymmetric risk.
That means having the risks clearly biased in your favor. Most of that comes from know where the market is likely to go, and where it’s likely to turn. With that information you can have an excellent idea of how much you will need to risk on a given trade, and how far it’s likely to go in your favor. You can then take only the trades which offer the best bang for the buck!
Easily identify Support & Resistance Levels!
A great many traders struggle with the idea of support and resistance. This method of analyzing price action makes it SO MUCH EASIER!
But it’s more than that.
Some levels are likely rejection points while others will tend to operate as attractors. What I will show you will having you seeing that clearly. It will give you a much deeper understanding of support and resistance than you likely ever thought possible!
Traders who have learned this methodology have cited that very thing as one of their biggest takeaways from it all.
You see, it’s all about value – an I’m not talking about fundamental analysis here. Each price point where buyers and sellers come together indicates an intersection of value – though for very different reasons. The more trades which take place at a certain price, the more it means folks are coming together on the basis of value, and by definition, that’s what the markets are looking for – the levels with the most value.
That’s why I’ve named the course I’ve put together for you Following the Quest for Value . It’s a never-ending quest, of course, but by tracking it you can put yourself in the position to make really outstanding trades.
Lecture 1 – An introduction to the concept of value in market prices (25:57)
Lecture 2 – The types of price distributions and what they are telling us (17:36)
Lecture 3 – Using price distribution charting, a real life example (30:30)
Lecture 4 – Using price distribution charting, another real life example (21:32)
Lecture 5 – Values areas, points of control, and developing price targets (24:30)
Lecture 6 – The meaning of price reactions to being near value areas and points of control (17:58)
Lecture 7 – Asymmetric Trade Opportunities: Looking for trade entry points (34:35)
Lecture 8 – Final thoughts and suggestions for further study (21:31)
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